Gravity Model of Migration: An Examination of Pakistan's Migration Patterns to the UK, USA, and Canada

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the migration patterns of the Pakistani diaspora, primarily focusing on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. Employing a gravity model approach, the research predicts migration flows based on economic factors and distances between nations. Utilizing panel data from 2005 to 2020, the study employs the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) method for estimation, aiming for consistent and unbiased results. This study sheds light on the economic push factors in Pakistan driving migration and underlines the complex interplay of economic and non-economic factors of migration dynamics. The relationship between migration and key economic indicators within Pakistan: gross nominal monthly wage, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, and labor force participation reveals that these variables significantly influence migration decisions from Pakistan, highlighting the crucial role of economic conditions in the country. On the other hand, similar economic factors in the destination countries, such as wages and labor force participation, do not show a statistically significant impact on migration patterns, suggesting the predominance of other non-economic factors in the decision to migrate. Moreover, this research has implications for policy-making, particularly in formulating strategies to manage and understand migration flows, both in the origin and destination countries. Limitations of the study include its focus on economic factors, potential data constraints, and the challenges in capturing the full spectrum of motivations behind migration decisions.