International Relations Theories and Scenario Building: Assessing the Prospects of a Russia-China Military Alliance

Abstract

In this research, a question of why Russia and China have not signed a treaty of military-political cooperation despite their growing military interaction is explored. Despite the progressive development external partnership in the last years, starting from 2014, the concept of a strategic partnership is still rather remote. Drawing on the International Relations theory, the paper analyses the rationale for forming such an alliance, its advantages and likely costs. This also accounts for the asymmetry of capabilities, the regional orientations, and the dependence interconnections that characterize their dyadic relationships. This article also talks about the geopolitical orientations on the side of Russia and China towards a multipolar world based on their international rather than regional interests. It points out that although both countries more actively interact in the sphere of military, they do not wish to be involved into each other’s wars due to the importance of their relations with the West. The current type of cooperation provides the necessary benefits to both countries without exposing them to the risks typical for the strategic alliance; however, the further development of strategic confrontation with the USA may push these countries into a more intimate cooperation.